AIAA 2002-0515 An Approach for the Intelligent Assessment of Future Technology Portfolios

A solid business case is highly dependent upon a strategic and intelligent technology research and development plan, or portfolio, in the early phases of product design. The embodiment of a strategic technology development plan is the identification and subsequent funding of high payoff technology areas that can maximize a company’s return on investment, which entails both performance and economic objectives. This paper describes an approach whereby the high payoff technology areas may be identified to quantitatively justify resource allocation decisions and investment opportunities to meet future organizational goals. The approach includes the simulation of the impact of generic technology areas and the degree of difficulty of technological advances within said areas. The approach results in a dynamic forecasting environment whereby rapid trade-offs can be performed in the conceptual phases of design. This environment allows for intelligently building a successful technology portfolio to facilitate a quantitative justification of a solid business case. A proof on concept application was performed on a next-generation supersonic transport.